Judgment

15-card booster (11 commons · 3 uncommons · 1 rare) · 15 cards · estimated average value $19.79

Pack prices compared with estimated typical and average contents value
Pack	Pack price	Typical (median)	Average	Average − price	Average / price
Judgment · Booster	$37.46 ↗	$15.76	$19.79	−$17.67	53%

Typical value (median)$15.76

Average value$19.79

Middle 80% of simulated packs$6.17 – $33.55

Estimated chance of contents worth at least$2.00 100%$5.00 94%$10.00 76%$20.00 34%$50.00 4%

Half of simulated packs are worth less than the median. These are gross singles values, before fees and shipping. The model omits some bonus cards and uses approximate slot odds.

Pack contents, odds, and calculation details

Where the value sits

Slot	Odds	×	EV
Common	common	10	$7.06
Common / foil	common 75% · foil common 18% · foil uncommon 5% · foil rare / mythic 2%	1	$4.24
Uncommon	uncommon	3	$4.36
Rare	rare / mythic	1	$4.12

A foil of any rarity replaces a common in about 1 pack in 4.
Pool: 143 booster printings; 143 priced on TCGplayer, 0 without a quote (counted as zero); 1 foils without a foil quote counted at their nonfoil price. common 55/55 · uncommon 44/44 · rare 44/44
Estimated average value under this model: $19.79. The distribution comes from 20000 simulated packs. Their mean is $19.83 ± $0.14.

Cards in the Pack

Every card a pack can hold, with the share of the pack value it carries. Chance is the expected number of copies in one pack, added up over every slot that can hold the card. EV is price times chance; the column adds up to the pack value.

Cards in one booster pack of Judgment, with price, chance per pack, and share of the pack value
#	Card	R	Price	Chance per pack	EV
1	Mental Note	C	$8.36	19.5%	$1.63
2	Prismatic Strands	C	$7.71	19.5%	$1.51
3	Cabal Therapy	U	$20.17	6.82%	$1.38
4	Lava Dart	C	$5.17	19.5%	$1.01
5	Envelop	C	$3.92	19.5%	$0.77
6	Flaring Pain	C	$2.98	19.5%	$0.58
7	Filth	U	$8.35	6.82%	$0.57
8	Sylvan Safekeeper	R	$15.58	2.27%	$0.35
9	Cabal Therapy foil	U	$246.75	0.122%	$0.30
10	Soulcatchers' Aerie	U	$4.33	6.82%	$0.30
11	Balthor the Defiled	R	$12.15	2.27%	$0.28
12	Mental Note foil	C	$84.75	0.325%	$0.28
13	Seedtime	R	$11.49	2.27%	$0.26
14	Anger	U	$3.69	6.82%	$0.25
15	Wonder	U	$3.54	6.82%	$0.24
16	Krosan Wayfarer foil	C	$70.66	0.325%	$0.23
17	Keep Watch	C	$1.16	19.5%	$0.23
18	Burning Wish	R	$9.90	2.27%	$0.23
19	Genesis	R	$9.64	2.27%	$0.22
20	Dwarven Bloodboiler	R	$9.60	2.27%	$0.22
21	Epic Struggle	R	$9.38	2.27%	$0.21
22	Cephalid Constable	R	$9.36	2.27%	$0.21
23	Cunning Wish	R	$8.51	2.27%	$0.19
24	Solitary Confinement	R	$8.30	2.27%	$0.19
25	Riftstone Portal	U	$2.70	6.82%	$0.18
26	Anger foil	U	$150.00	0.122%	$0.18
27	Glory	R	$7.99	2.27%	$0.18
28	Phantom Nishoba	R	$7.64	2.27%	$0.17
29	Stitch Together	U	$2.49	6.82%	$0.17
30	Lava Dart foil	C	$51.46	0.325%	$0.17
31	Quiet Speculation	U	$2.44	6.82%	$0.17
32	Mirari's Wake	R	$7.25	2.27%	$0.16
33	Planar Chaos	U	$2.34	6.82%	$0.16
34	Living Wish	R	$6.58	2.27%	$0.15
35	Sylvan Safekeeper foil	R	$358.56	0.0406%	$0.15
36	Krosan Wayfarer	C	$0.69	19.5%	$0.13
37	Hunting Grounds	R	$5.88	2.27%	$0.13
38	Flash of Insight	U	$1.96	6.82%	$0.13
39	Morality Shift	R	$5.41	2.27%	$0.12
40	Envelop foil	C	$37.40	0.325%	$0.12
41	Test of Endurance	R	$5.22	2.27%	$0.12
42	Ray of Revelation foil	C	$33.52	0.325%	$0.11
43	Anurid Brushhopper	R	$4.73	2.27%	$0.11
44	Prismatic Strands foil	C	$30.45	0.325%	$0.10
45	Unquestioned Authority	U	$1.37	6.82%	$0.09
46	Flash of Insight foil	U	$75.27	0.122%	$0.09
47	Quiet Speculation foil	U	$69.74	0.122%	$0.08
48	Jeska, Warrior Adept	R	$3.54	2.27%	$0.08
49	Benevolent Bodyguard	C	$0.40	19.5%	$0.08
50	Wonder foil	U	$62.50	0.122%	$0.08
51	Keep Watch foil	C	$23.00	0.325%	$0.07
52	Liberated Dwarf	C	$0.37	19.5%	$0.07
53	Flaring Pain foil	C	$22.04	0.325%	$0.07
54	Burning Wish foil	R	$175.00	0.0406%	$0.07
55	Dwarven Scorcher	C	$0.35	19.5%	$0.07
56	Dwarven Bloodboiler foil	R	$165.53	0.0406%	$0.07
57	Filth foil	U	$51.41	0.122%	$0.06
58	Canopy Claws	C	$0.32	19.5%	$0.06
59	Nomad Mythmaker	R	$2.74	2.27%	$0.06
60	Commander Eesha	R	$2.68	2.27%	$0.06
61	Dwarven Scorcher foil	C	$17.63	0.325%	$0.06
62	Ray of Revelation	C	$0.29	19.5%	$0.06
63	Shieldmage Advocate	C	$0.27	19.5%	$0.05
64	Brawn	U	$0.77	6.82%	$0.05
65	Riftstone Portal foil	U	$42.72	0.122%	$0.05
66	Seedtime foil	R	$125.37	0.0406%	$0.05
67	Harvester Druid	C	$0.26	19.5%	$0.05
68	Guiltfeeder	R	$2.21	2.27%	$0.05
69	Benevolent Bodyguard foil	C	$15.38	0.325%	$0.05
70	Brawn foil	U	$40.54	0.122%	$0.05
71	Web of Inertia	U	$0.72	6.82%	$0.05
72	Phantom Tiger	C	$0.25	19.5%	$0.05
73	Trained Pronghorn	C	$0.25	19.5%	$0.05
74	Solitary Confinement foil	R	$119.99	0.0406%	$0.05
75	Mirari's Wake foil	R	$118.00	0.0406%	$0.05
76	Unquestioned Authority foil	U	$39.08	0.122%	$0.05
77	Krosan Verge foil	U	$39.03	0.122%	$0.05
78	Grip of Amnesia	C	$0.24	19.5%	$0.05
79	Phantom Nomad	C	$0.23	19.5%	$0.04
80	Balthor the Defiled foil	R	$107.49	0.0406%	$0.04
81	Arcane Teachings	C	$0.22	19.5%	$0.04
82	Battlefield Scrounger	C	$0.22	19.5%	$0.04
83	Defy Gravity	C	$0.22	19.5%	$0.04
84	Hapless Researcher	C	$0.22	19.5%	$0.04
85	Lost in Thought	C	$0.22	19.5%	$0.04
86	Stitch Together foil	U	$35.04	0.122%	$0.04
87	Pulsemage Advocate	R	$1.86	2.27%	$0.04
88	Nullmage Advocate	C	$0.21	19.5%	$0.04
89	Battle Screech	U	$0.59	6.82%	$0.04
90	Worldgorger Dragon	R	$1.74	2.27%	$0.04
91	Cagemail	C	$0.20	19.5%	$0.04
92	Liberated Dwarf foil	C	$11.93	0.325%	$0.04
93	Battle Screech foil	U	$31.51	0.122%	$0.04
94	Krosan Reclamation	U	$0.56	6.82%	$0.04
95	Worldgorger Dragon foil	R	$92.50	0.0406%	$0.04
96	Aven Fogbringer	C	$0.19	19.5%	$0.04
97	Ember Shot	C	$0.19	19.5%	$0.04
98	Toxic Stench	C	$0.19	19.5%	$0.04
99	Wormfang Drake	C	$0.19	19.5%	$0.04
100	Crush of Wurms	R	$1.63	2.27%	$0.04
101	Spelljack	R	$1.60	2.27%	$0.04
102	Krosan Verge	U	$0.53	6.82%	$0.04
103	Barbarian Bully	C	$0.18	19.5%	$0.04
104	Earsplitting Rats	C	$0.18	19.5%	$0.04
105	Suntail Hawk	C	$0.18	19.5%	$0.04
106	Phantom Nishoba foil	R	$84.97	0.0406%	$0.03
107	Book Burning	C	$0.17	19.5%	$0.03
108	Wormfang Newt	C	$0.17	19.5%	$0.03
109	Dwarven Driller	U	$0.47	6.82%	$0.03
110	Browbeat	U	$0.46	6.82%	$0.03
111	Border Patrol	C	$0.16	19.5%	$0.03
112	Guided Strike	C	$0.16	19.5%	$0.03
113	Swirling Sandstorm	C	$0.16	19.5%	$0.03
114	Genesis foil	R	$74.67	0.0406%	$0.03
115	Valor	U	$0.44	6.82%	$0.03
116	Cabal Trainee	C	$0.15	19.5%	$0.03
117	Centaur Rootcaster	C	$0.15	19.5%	$0.03
118	Vigilant Sentry	C	$0.15	19.5%	$0.03
119	Soulcatchers' Aerie foil	U	$22.44	0.122%	$0.03
120	Soulgorger Orgg	U	$0.39	6.82%	$0.03
121	Grizzly Fate	U	$0.38	6.82%	$0.03
122	Funeral Pyre	C	$0.13	19.5%	$0.03
123	Sudden Strength	C	$0.13	19.5%	$0.03
124	Treacherous Werewolf	C	$0.13	19.5%	$0.03
125	Cephalid Inkshrouder	U	$0.37	6.82%	$0.03
126	Cunning Wish foil	R	$59.32	0.0406%	$0.02
127	Anurid Barkripper	C	$0.12	19.5%	$0.02
128	Rats' Feast	C	$0.12	19.5%	$0.02
129	Nullmage Advocate foil	C	$6.80	0.325%	$0.02
130	Elephant Guide	U	$0.32	6.82%	$0.02
131	Exoskeletal Armor	U	$0.32	6.82%	$0.02
132	Giant Warthog	C	$0.11	19.5%	$0.02
133	Ironshell Beetle	C	$0.11	19.5%	$0.02
134	Nantuko Tracer	C	$0.11	19.5%	$0.02
135	Silver Seraph	R	$0.94	2.27%	$0.02
136	Aven Warcraft	U	$0.31	6.82%	$0.02
137	Death Wish foil	R	$50.00	0.0406%	$0.02
138	Anurid Brushhopper foil	R	$49.98	0.0406%	$0.02
139	Jeska, Warrior Adept foil	R	$48.99	0.0406%	$0.02
140	Nantuko Monastery	U	$0.29	6.82%	$0.02
141	Spurnmage Advocate	U	$0.29	6.82%	$0.02
142	Mirror Wall	C	$0.10	19.5%	$0.02
143	Grizzly Fate foil	U	$15.45	0.122%	$0.02
144	Hapless Researcher foil	C	$5.69	0.325%	$0.02
145	Ancestor's Chosen	U	$0.27	6.82%	$0.02
146	Tunneler Wurm	U	$0.27	6.82%	$0.02
147	Wormfang Crab	U	$0.27	6.82%	$0.02
148	Living Wish foil	R	$44.99	0.0406%	$0.02
149	Planar Chaos foil	U	$14.77	0.122%	$0.02
150	Lead Astray	C	$0.09	19.5%	$0.02
151	Venomous Vines	C	$0.09	19.5%	$0.02
152	Firecat Blitz foil	U	$13.86	0.122%	$0.02
153	Sutured Ghoul	R	$0.74	2.27%	$0.02
154	Grip of Amnesia foil	C	$5.13	0.325%	$0.02
155	Krosan Reclamation foil	U	$13.59	0.122%	$0.02
156	Commander Eesha foil	R	$40.50	0.0406%	$0.02
157	Test of Endurance foil	R	$40.00	0.0406%	$0.02
158	Web of Inertia foil	U	$13.13	0.122%	$0.02
159	Death Wish	R	$0.70	2.27%	$0.02
160	Firecat Blitz	U	$0.23	6.82%	$0.02
161	Serene Sunset	U	$0.23	6.82%	$0.02
162	Goretusk Firebeast	C	$0.08	19.5%	$0.02
163	Phantom Centaur foil	U	$12.75	0.122%	$0.02
164	Forcemage Advocate	U	$0.22	6.82%	$0.02
165	Grave Consequences	U	$0.22	6.82%	$0.02
166	Shaman's Trance	R	$0.65	2.27%	$0.01
167	Chastise	U	$0.21	6.82%	$0.01
168	Morality Shift foil	R	$35.25	0.0406%	$0.01
169	Sutured Ghoul foil	R	$34.99	0.0406%	$0.01
170	Phantom Nomad foil	C	$4.33	0.325%	$0.01
171	Valor foil	U	$11.33	0.122%	$0.01
172	Folk Medicine	C	$0.07	19.5%	$0.01
173	Phantom Centaur	U	$0.20	6.82%	$0.01
174	Swelter	U	$0.20	6.82%	$0.01
175	Epic Struggle foil	R	$33.00	0.0406%	$0.01
176	Pulsemage Advocate foil	R	$32.65	0.0406%	$0.01
177	Browbeat foil	U	$10.83	0.122%	$0.01
178	Anurid Swarmsnapper	U	$0.19	6.82%	$0.01
179	Wormfang Turtle	U	$0.19	6.82%	$0.01
180	Funeral Pyre foil	C	$3.96	0.325%	$0.01
181	Suntail Hawk foil	C	$3.95	0.325%	$0.01
182	Treacherous Vampire	U	$0.18	6.82%	$0.01
183	Harvester Druid foil	C	$3.71	0.325%	$0.01
184	Breaking Point	R	$0.53	2.27%	$0.01
185	Lightning Surge	R	$0.53	2.27%	$0.01
186	Battlewise Aven	C	$0.06	19.5%	$0.01
187	Spellgorger Barbarian	C	$0.06	19.5%	$0.01
188	Mist of Stagnation	R	$0.51	2.27%	$0.01
189	Phantom Nantuko	R	$0.51	2.27%	$0.01
190	Wormfang Manta	R	$0.50	2.27%	$0.01
191	Book Burning foil	C	$3.43	0.325%	$0.01
192	Fledgling Dragon	R	$0.49	2.27%	$0.01
193	Thriss, Nantuko Primus	R	$0.49	2.27%	$0.01
194	Infectious Rage	U	$0.16	6.82%	$0.01
195	Wormfang Drake foil	C	$3.23	0.325%	$0.01
196	Hunting Grounds foil	R	$25.29	0.0406%	$0.01
197	Golden Wish	R	$0.42	2.27%	$0.01
198	Phantom Flock	U	$0.14	6.82%	$0.01
199	Silver Seraph foil	R	$23.25	0.0406%	$0.01
200	Glory foil	R	$22.52	0.0406%	$0.01
201	Masked Gorgon	R	$0.39	2.27%	$0.01
202	Nantuko Monastery foil	U	$7.16	0.122%	$0.01
203	Serene Sunset foil	U	$7.00	0.122%	$0.01
204	Crush of Wurms foil	R	$21.00	0.0406%	$0.01
205	Aven Fogbringer foil	C	$2.60	0.325%	$0.01
206	Erhnam Djinn	R	$0.36	2.27%	$0.01
207	Spirit Cairn	U	$0.12	6.82%	$0.01
208	Scalpelexis	R	$0.35	2.27%	$0.01
209	Shaman's Trance foil	R	$19.18	0.0406%	$0.01
210	Guiltfeeder foil	R	$18.97	0.0406%	$0.01
211	Cephalid Constable foil	R	$18.78	0.0406%	$0.01
212	Battlefield Scrounger foil	C	$2.34	0.325%	$0.01
213	Laquatus's Disdain	U	$0.11	6.82%	$0.01
214	Wormfang Manta foil	R	$17.33	0.0406%	$0.01
215	Nomad Mythmaker foil	R	$16.80	0.0406%	$0.01
216	Erhnam Djinn foil	R	$16.78	0.0406%	$0.01
217	Phantom Tiger foil	C	$2.06	0.325%	$0.01
218	Exoskeletal Armor foil	U	$5.44	0.122%	$0.01
219	Centaur Rootcaster foil	C	$1.96	0.325%	$0.01
220	Telekinetic Bonds	R	$0.27	2.27%	$0.01
221	Ancestor's Chosen foil	U	$4.99	0.122%	$0.01
222	Dwarven Driller foil	U	$4.82	0.122%	$0.01
223	Earsplitting Rats foil	C	$1.67	0.325%	$0.01
224	Swirling Sandstorm foil	C	$1.62	0.325%	$0.01
225	Selfless Exorcist	R	$0.23	2.27%	$0.01
226	Spelljack foil	R	$12.40	0.0406%	$0.01
227	Wormfang Behemoth	R	$0.22	2.27%	$0.01
228	Soulgorger Orgg foil	U	$4.04	0.122%	<$0.01
229	Defy Gravity foil	C	$1.45	0.325%	<$0.01
230	Breaking Point foil	R	$9.99	0.0406%	<$0.01
231	Elephant Guide foil	U	$3.27	0.122%	<$0.01
232	Telekinetic Bonds foil	R	$9.56	0.0406%	<$0.01
233	Cephalid Inkshrouder foil	U	$3.09	0.122%	<$0.01
234	Sudden Strength foil	C	$1.14	0.325%	<$0.01
235	Wormfang Behemoth foil	R	$9.12	0.0406%	<$0.01
236	Golden Wish foil	R	$9.05	0.0406%	<$0.01
237	Wormfang Newt foil	C	$1.13	0.325%	<$0.01
238	Thriss, Nantuko Primus foil	R	$8.98	0.0406%	<$0.01
239	Fledgling Dragon foil	R	$8.45	0.0406%	<$0.01
240	Mist of Stagnation foil	R	$7.85	0.0406%	<$0.01
241	Venomous Vines foil	C	$0.95	0.325%	<$0.01
242	Tunneler Wurm foil	U	$2.50	0.122%	<$0.01
243	Phantom Flock foil	U	$2.49	0.122%	<$0.01
244	Guided Strike foil	C	$0.93	0.325%	<$0.01
245	Wormfang Turtle foil	U	$2.39	0.122%	<$0.01
246	Spurnmage Advocate foil	U	$2.31	0.122%	<$0.01
247	Arcane Teachings foil	C	$0.85	0.325%	<$0.01
248	Rats' Feast foil	C	$0.76	0.325%	<$0.01
249	Border Patrol foil	C	$0.69	0.325%	<$0.01
250	Canopy Claws foil	C	$0.69	0.325%	<$0.01
251	Battlewise Aven foil	C	$0.67	0.325%	<$0.01
252	Lightning Surge foil	R	$4.96	0.0406%	<$0.01
253	Forcemage Advocate foil	U	$1.59	0.122%	<$0.01
254	Grave Consequences foil	U	$1.59	0.122%	<$0.01
255	Phantom Nantuko foil	R	$4.76	0.0406%	<$0.01
256	Cabal Trainee foil	C	$0.59	0.325%	<$0.01
257	Ember Shot foil	C	$0.58	0.325%	<$0.01
258	Infectious Rage foil	U	$1.54	0.122%	<$0.01
259	Lost in Thought foil	C	$0.57	0.325%	<$0.01
260	Barbarian Bully foil	C	$0.56	0.325%	<$0.01
261	Scalpelexis foil	R	$4.41	0.0406%	<$0.01
262	Anurid Barkripper foil	C	$0.55	0.325%	<$0.01
263	Vigilant Sentry foil	C	$0.55	0.325%	<$0.01
264	Laquatus's Disdain foil	U	$1.43	0.122%	<$0.01
265	Cagemail foil	C	$0.51	0.325%	<$0.01
266	Mirror Wall foil	C	$0.51	0.325%	<$0.01
267	Folk Medicine foil	C	$0.50	0.325%	<$0.01
268	Shieldmage Advocate foil	C	$0.50	0.325%	<$0.01
269	Trained Pronghorn foil	C	$0.50	0.325%	<$0.01
270	Spirit Cairn foil	U	$1.30	0.122%	<$0.01
271	Spellgorger Barbarian foil	C	$0.45	0.325%	<$0.01
272	Aven Warcraft foil	U	$1.15	0.122%	<$0.01
273	Treacherous Werewolf foil	C	$0.43	0.325%	<$0.01
274	Goretusk Firebeast foil	C	$0.42	0.325%	<$0.01
275	Nantuko Tracer foil	C	$0.42	0.325%	<$0.01
276	Giant Warthog foil	C	$0.38	0.325%	<$0.01
277	Ironshell Beetle foil	C	$0.38	0.325%	<$0.01
278	Chastise foil	U	$1.00	0.122%	<$0.01
279	Wormfang Crab foil	U	$0.97	0.122%	<$0.01
280	Anurid Swarmsnapper foil	U	$0.68	0.122%	<$0.01
281	Treacherous Vampire foil	U	$0.67	0.122%	<$0.01
282	Selfless Exorcist foil	R	$2.00	0.0406%	<$0.01
283	Lead Astray foil	C	$0.24	0.325%	<$0.01
284	Toxic Stench foil	C	$0.24	0.325%	<$0.01
285	Swelter foil	U	$0.55	0.122%	<$0.01
286	Masked Gorgon foil	R	$0.39	0.0406%	<$0.01