Mirrodin Besieged

Draft booster (10 commons · 3 uncommons · 1 rare/mythic · 1 land) · 15 cards · estimated average value $7.97

Pack prices compared with estimated typical and average contents value
Pack	Pack price	Typical (median)	Average	Average − price	Average / price
Mirrodin Besieged · Draft	$19.79 ↗	$4.83	$7.97	−$11.82	40%

Typical value (median)$4.83

Average value$7.97

Middle 80% of simulated packs$2.44 – $15.64

Estimated chance of contents worth at least$2.00 98%$5.00 48%$10.00 16%$20.00 8%$50.00 <1%

Half of simulated packs are worth less than the median. These are gross singles values, before fees and shipping. The model omits some bonus cards and uses approximate slot odds.

Pack contents, odds, and calculation details

Where the value sits

Slot	Odds	×	EV
Common	common	9	$1.64
Common / foil	common 67% · foil common 24% · foil uncommon 7% · foil rare / mythic 2%	1	$0.96
Uncommon	uncommon	3	$1.15
Rare / mythic	rare / mythic	1	$4.05
Basic land	basic land	1	$0.18

Mythics print at half the rate of rares (about 1 pack in 8).
A foil of any rarity replaces a common in about 1 pack in 3.
Pool: 150 booster printings; 150 priced on TCGplayer, 0 without a quote (counted as zero); 3 foils without a foil quote counted at their nonfoil price. common 60/60 · uncommon 40/40 · rare 35/35 · mythic 10/10 · basic / other 5/5
Estimated average value under this model: $7.97. The distribution comes from 20000 simulated packs. Their mean is $8.09 ± $0.07.

Cards in the Pack

Every card a pack can hold, with the share of the pack value it carries. Chance is the expected number of copies in one pack, added up over every slot that can hold the card. EV is price times chance; the column adds up to the pack value.

Cards in one booster pack of Mirrodin Besieged, with price, chance per pack, and share of the pack value
#	Card	R	Price	Chance per pack	EV
1	Green Sun's Zenith	R	$32.73	2.50%	$0.82
2	Blightsteel Colossus	M	$43.39	1.25%	$0.54
3	Sword of Feast and Famine	M	$43.24	1.25%	$0.54
4	Phyresis	C	$2.40	16.1%	$0.39
5	Consecrated Sphinx	M	$30.13	1.25%	$0.38
6	Brass Squire	U	$4.63	7.50%	$0.35
7	Inkmoth Nexus	R	$13.24	2.50%	$0.33
8	Plague Myr	U	$2.36	7.50%	$0.18
9	Darksteel Plate	R	$6.70	2.50%	$0.17
10	Myr Turbine	R	$6.57	2.50%	$0.16
11	Phyrexian Crusader	R	$6.38	2.50%	$0.16
12	Ichor Wellspring	C	$0.67	16.1%	$0.11
13	Mirrorworks	R	$3.39	2.50%	$0.08
14	Phyresis foil	C	$18.71	0.397%	$0.07
15	Creeping Corrosion	R	$2.84	2.50%	$0.07
16	Phyrexian Hydra	R	$2.78	2.50%	$0.07
17	Hero of Bladehold	M	$5.43	1.25%	$0.07
18	Massacre Wurm	M	$5.39	1.25%	$0.07
19	Fangren Marauder	C	$0.40	16.1%	$0.06
20	Myr Welder	R	$2.46	2.50%	$0.06
21	Fuel for the Cause	C	$0.38	16.1%	$0.06
22	Core Prowler	U	$0.77	7.50%	$0.06
23	Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas	M	$4.21	1.25%	$0.05
24	Blue Sun's Zenith	R	$2.08	2.50%	$0.05
25	Fangren Marauder foil	C	$12.98	0.397%	$0.05
26	Mirran Spy	C	$0.31	16.1%	$0.05
27	Glissa, the Traitor	M	$3.74	1.25%	$0.05
28	Septic Rats	U	$0.62	7.50%	$0.05
29	Green Sun's Zenith foil	R	$77.81	0.0595%	$0.05
30	Swamp	L	$0.23	20.0%	$0.05
31	Steel Sabotage	C	$0.28	16.1%	$0.05
32	Shriekhorn	C	$0.27	16.1%	$0.04
33	Praetor's Counsel	M	$3.40	1.25%	$0.04
34	Flensermite	C	$0.26	16.1%	$0.04
35	Viridian Emissary	C	$0.26	16.1%	$0.04
36	Blightsteel Colossus foil	M	$139.29	0.0298%	$0.04
37	Master's Call	C	$0.25	16.1%	$0.04
38	Priests of Norn	C	$0.25	16.1%	$0.04
39	Virulent Wound	C	$0.25	16.1%	$0.04
40	Corrupted Conscience	U	$0.52	7.50%	$0.04
41	Blightwidow	C	$0.24	16.1%	$0.04
42	Myr Sire	C	$0.23	16.1%	$0.04
43	Spread the Sickness	C	$0.23	16.1%	$0.04
44	Plains	L	$0.18	20.0%	$0.04
45	Rot Wolf	C	$0.22	16.1%	$0.04
46	Mountain	L	$0.17	20.0%	$0.03
47	Flayer Husk	C	$0.20	16.1%	$0.03
48	Island	L	$0.16	20.0%	$0.03
49	Go for the Throat	U	$0.42	7.50%	$0.03
50	Mirran Mettle	C	$0.19	16.1%	$0.03
51	Phyrexian Digester	C	$0.19	16.1%	$0.03
52	Forest	L	$0.15	20.0%	$0.03
53	Sangromancer	R	$1.16	2.50%	$0.03
54	Leonin Skyhunter	C	$0.18	16.1%	$0.03
55	Pistus Strike	C	$0.18	16.1%	$0.03
56	Ardent Recruit	C	$0.17	16.1%	$0.03
57	Concussive Bolt	C	$0.17	16.1%	$0.03
58	Shimmer Myr	R	$1.08	2.50%	$0.03
59	Signal Pest	U	$0.36	7.50%	$0.03
60	Viridian Corrupter	U	$0.36	7.50%	$0.03
61	Plague Myr foil	U	$15.12	0.179%	$0.03
62	Brass Squire foil	U	$14.95	0.179%	$0.03
63	Ichor Wellspring foil	C	$6.53	0.397%	$0.03
64	Loxodon Partisan	C	$0.16	16.1%	$0.03
65	Lead the Stampede	U	$0.34	7.50%	$0.03
66	Sword of Feast and Famine foil	M	$82.92	0.0298%	$0.02
67	Knowledge Pool	R	$0.97	2.50%	$0.02
68	Divine Offering	C	$0.15	16.1%	$0.02
69	Tine Shrike	C	$0.15	16.1%	$0.02
70	Goblin Wardriver	U	$0.32	7.50%	$0.02
71	Leonin Relic-Warder	U	$0.32	7.50%	$0.02
72	Psychosis Crawler	R	$0.95	2.50%	$0.02
73	Treasure Mage	U	$0.31	7.50%	$0.02
74	Black Sun's Zenith	R	$0.91	2.50%	$0.02
75	Horrifying Revelation	C	$0.14	16.1%	$0.02
76	Oculus	C	$0.14	16.1%	$0.02
77	Vivisection	C	$0.14	16.1%	$0.02
78	Plaguemaw Beast	U	$0.30	7.50%	$0.02
79	Consecrated Sphinx foil	M	$74.99	0.0298%	$0.02
80	Phyrexian Juggernaut	U	$0.29	7.50%	$0.02
81	Flesh-Eater Imp	U	$0.28	7.50%	$0.02
82	Frantic Salvage	C	$0.13	16.1%	$0.02
83	Accorder Paladin	U	$0.26	7.50%	$0.02
84	Spire Serpent	C	$0.12	16.1%	$0.02
85	Silverskin Armor	U	$0.25	7.50%	$0.02
86	Scourge Servant	C	$0.11	16.1%	$0.02
87	Fuel for the Cause foil	C	$4.19	0.397%	$0.02
88	Inkmoth Nexus foil	R	$27.23	0.0595%	$0.02
89	Copper Carapace	C	$0.10	16.1%	$0.02
90	Phyrexian Rager	C	$0.10	16.1%	$0.02
91	Corrupted Conscience foil	U	$9.00	0.179%	$0.02
92	Cryptoplasm	R	$0.64	2.50%	$0.02
93	Signal Pest foil	U	$8.52	0.179%	$0.02
94	Kemba's Legion	U	$0.20	7.50%	$0.02
95	Leonin Relic-Warder foil	U	$8.22	0.179%	$0.01
96	Crush	C	$0.09	16.1%	$0.01
97	Hexplate Golem	C	$0.09	16.1%	$0.01
98	Unnatural Predation	C	$0.09	16.1%	$0.01
99	Gruesome Encore	U	$0.19	7.50%	$0.01
100	Viridian Claw	U	$0.19	7.50%	$0.01
101	Spine of Ish Sah foil	R	$21.97	0.0595%	$0.01
102	Mirran Spy foil	C	$3.28	0.397%	$0.01
103	Red Sun's Zenith	R	$0.52	2.50%	$0.01
104	Morbid Plunder	C	$0.08	16.1%	$0.01
105	Decimator Web	R	$0.51	2.50%	$0.01
106	Into the Core	U	$0.17	7.50%	$0.01
107	Sphere of the Suns	U	$0.17	7.50%	$0.01
108	Myr Sire foil	C	$3.15	0.397%	$0.01
109	Steel Sabotage foil	C	$3.07	0.397%	$0.01
110	Viridian Corrupter foil	U	$6.65	0.179%	$0.01
111	Bladed Sentinel	C	$0.07	16.1%	$0.01
112	Caustic Hound	C	$0.07	16.1%	$0.01
113	Quilled Slagwurm	U	$0.15	7.50%	$0.01
114	Blightwidow foil	C	$2.75	0.397%	$0.01
115	Slagstorm	R	$0.42	2.50%	$0.01
116	Galvanoth	R	$0.41	2.50%	$0.01
117	Thrun, the Last Troll	M	$0.81	1.25%	$0.01
118	Flensermite foil	C	$2.52	0.397%	$0.01
119	Shimmer Myr foil	R	$16.46	0.0595%	$0.01
120	Mortarpod	U	$0.13	7.50%	$0.01
121	Piston Sledge	U	$0.13	7.50%	$0.01
122	Strandwalker	U	$0.13	7.50%	$0.01
123	Banishment Decree	C	$0.06	16.1%	$0.01
124	Tangle Mantis	C	$0.06	16.1%	$0.01
125	Mitotic Manipulation	R	$0.38	2.50%	$0.01
126	Phyrexian Vatmother	R	$0.38	2.50%	$0.01
127	Phyrexian Crusader foil	R	$15.84	0.0595%	$0.01
128	Choking Fumes	U	$0.12	7.50%	$0.01
129	Neurok Commando	U	$0.12	7.50%	$0.01
130	Core Prowler foil	U	$5.01	0.179%	$0.01
131	Phyrexian Juggernaut foil	U	$4.93	0.179%	$0.01
132	Lead the Stampede foil	U	$4.92	0.179%	$0.01
133	Go for the Throat foil	U	$4.90	0.179%	$0.01
134	Spine of Ish Sah	R	$0.35	2.50%	$0.01
135	Thopter Assembly	R	$0.35	2.50%	$0.01
136	Darksteel Plate foil	R	$14.70	0.0595%	$0.01
137	White Sun's Zenith	R	$0.34	2.50%	$0.01
138	Skinwing	U	$0.11	7.50%	$0.01
139	Contested War Zone	R	$0.33	2.50%	$0.01
140	Hellkite Igniter	R	$0.33	2.50%	$0.01
141	Victory's Herald	R	$0.33	2.50%	$0.01
142	Blisterstick Shaman	C	$0.05	16.1%	$0.01
143	Gnathosaur	C	$0.05	16.1%	$0.01
144	Gust-Skimmer	C	$0.05	16.1%	$0.01
145	Rally the Forces	C	$0.05	16.1%	$0.01
146	Rusted Slasher	C	$0.05	16.1%	$0.01
147	Magnetic Mine	R	$0.32	2.50%	$0.01
148	Phyrexian Rebirth	R	$0.32	2.50%	$0.01
149	Hero of Oxid Ridge foil	M	$26.71	0.0298%	$0.01
150	Bonehoard	R	$0.31	2.50%	$0.01
151	Rot Wolf foil	C	$1.91	0.397%	$0.01
152	Myr Welder foil	R	$12.69	0.0595%	$0.01
153	Nested Ghoul	U	$0.10	7.50%	$0.01
154	Vedalken Anatomist	U	$0.10	7.50%	$0.01
155	Mirran Crusader	R	$0.30	2.50%	$0.01
156	Phyrexian Revoker	R	$0.30	2.50%	$0.01
157	Distant Memories	R	$0.29	2.50%	$0.01
158	Hero of Oxid Ridge	M	$0.57	1.25%	$0.01
159	Titan Forge	R	$0.28	2.50%	$0.01
160	Blue Sun's Zenith foil	R	$11.61	0.0595%	$0.01
161	Praetor's Counsel foil	M	$23.04	0.0298%	$0.01
162	Sangromancer foil	R	$11.45	0.0595%	$0.01
163	Gore Vassal	U	$0.09	7.50%	$0.01
164	Virulent Wound foil	C	$1.69	0.397%	$0.01
165	Glissa's Courier	C	$0.04	16.1%	$0.01
166	Koth's Courier	C	$0.04	16.1%	$0.01
167	Kuldotha Ringleader	C	$0.04	16.1%	$0.01
168	Razorfield Rhino	C	$0.04	16.1%	$0.01
169	Spin Engine	C	$0.04	16.1%	$0.01
170	Tangle Hulk	C	$0.04	16.1%	$0.01
171	Turn the Tide	C	$0.04	16.1%	$0.01
172	Myr Turbine foil	R	$10.71	0.0595%	$0.01
173	Phyrexian Digester foil	C	$1.60	0.397%	$0.01
174	Septic Rats foil	U	$3.50	0.179%	$0.01
175	Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas foil	M	$20.62	0.0298%	$0.01
176	Metallic Mastery	U	$0.08	7.50%	$0.01
177	Shriekhorn foil	C	$1.49	0.397%	$0.01
178	Mirrorworks foil	R	$9.84	0.0595%	$0.01
179	Massacre Wurm foil	M	$19.27	0.0298%	$0.01
180	Tine Shrike foil	C	$1.41	0.397%	$0.01
181	Creeping Corrosion foil	R	$9.18	0.0595%	$0.01
182	Psychosis Crawler foil	R	$8.84	0.0595%	$0.01
183	Kuldotha Flamefiend	U	$0.07	7.50%	$0.01
184	Vedalken Infuser	U	$0.07	7.50%	$0.01
185	Hero of Bladehold foil	M	$17.39	0.0298%	$0.01
186	Black Sun's Zenith foil	R	$8.32	0.0595%	<$0.01
187	Burn the Impure	C	$0.03	16.1%	<$0.01
188	Dross Ripper	C	$0.03	16.1%	<$0.01
189	Ogre Resister	C	$0.03	16.1%	<$0.01
190	Quicksilver Geyser	C	$0.03	16.1%	<$0.01
191	Serum Raker	C	$0.03	16.1%	<$0.01
192	Training Drone	C	$0.03	16.1%	<$0.01
193	Priests of Norn foil	C	$1.20	0.397%	<$0.01
194	Viridian Emissary foil	C	$1.20	0.397%	<$0.01
195	Phyrexian Rebirth foil	R	$7.84	0.0595%	<$0.01
196	Knowledge Pool foil	R	$7.65	0.0595%	<$0.01
197	Pierce Strider	U	$0.06	7.50%	<$0.01
198	Spiraling Duelist	U	$0.06	7.50%	<$0.01
199	White Sun's Zenith foil	R	$7.46	0.0595%	<$0.01
200	Goblin Wardriver foil	U	$2.42	0.179%	<$0.01
201	Spread the Sickness foil	C	$1.05	0.397%	<$0.01
202	Lumengrid Gargoyle	U	$0.05	7.50%	<$0.01
203	Peace Strider	U	$0.05	7.50%	<$0.01
204	Treasure Mage foil	U	$2.08	0.179%	<$0.01
205	Silverskin Armor foil	U	$2.05	0.179%	<$0.01
206	Thrun, the Last Troll foil	M	$11.81	0.0298%	<$0.01
207	Decimator Web foil	R	$5.42	0.0595%	<$0.01
208	Bonehoard foil	R	$5.37	0.0595%	<$0.01
209	Glissa, the Traitor foil	M	$10.19	0.0298%	<$0.01
210	Frantic Salvage foil	C	$0.69	0.397%	<$0.01
211	Flesh-Eater Imp foil	U	$1.50	0.179%	<$0.01
212	Cryptoplasm foil	R	$4.48	0.0595%	<$0.01
213	Flayer Husk foil	C	$0.67	0.397%	<$0.01
214	Ardent Recruit foil	C	$0.65	0.397%	<$0.01
215	Red Sun's Zenith foil	R	$4.08	0.0595%	<$0.01
216	Unnatural Predation foil	C	$0.59	0.397%	<$0.01
217	Melira's Keepers	U	$0.03	7.50%	<$0.01
218	Divine Offering foil	C	$0.56	0.397%	<$0.01
219	Mirran Mettle foil	C	$0.55	0.397%	<$0.01
220	Pistus Strike foil	C	$0.52	0.397%	<$0.01
221	Piston Sledge foil	U	$1.15	0.179%	<$0.01
222	Viridian Claw foil	U	$1.00	0.179%	<$0.01
223	Accorder Paladin foil	U	$0.97	0.179%	<$0.01
224	Leonin Skyhunter foil	C	$0.43	0.397%	<$0.01
225	Scourge Servant foil	C	$0.43	0.397%	<$0.01
226	Thopter Assembly foil	R	$2.80	0.0595%	<$0.01
227	Hellkite Igniter foil	R	$2.77	0.0595%	<$0.01
228	Crush foil	C	$0.41	0.397%	<$0.01
229	Master's Call foil	C	$0.41	0.397%	<$0.01
230	Mitotic Manipulation foil	R	$2.71	0.0595%	<$0.01
231	Phyrexian Revoker foil	R	$2.68	0.0595%	<$0.01
232	Bladed Sentinel foil	C	$0.40	0.397%	<$0.01
233	Ogre Resister foil	C	$0.40	0.397%	<$0.01
234	Phyrexian Rager foil	C	$0.40	0.397%	<$0.01
235	Razorfield Rhino foil	C	$0.40	0.397%	<$0.01
236	Spire Serpent foil	C	$0.40	0.397%	<$0.01
237	Tangle Mantis foil	C	$0.40	0.397%	<$0.01
238	Copper Carapace foil	C	$0.39	0.397%	<$0.01
239	Gust-Skimmer foil	C	$0.35	0.397%	<$0.01
240	Morbid Plunder foil	C	$0.35	0.397%	<$0.01
241	Burn the Impure foil	C	$0.34	0.397%	<$0.01
242	Blisterstick Shaman foil	C	$0.32	0.397%	<$0.01
243	Rusted Slasher foil	C	$0.32	0.397%	<$0.01
244	Tangle Hulk foil	C	$0.31	0.397%	<$0.01
245	Phyrexian Hydra foil	R	$2.03	0.0595%	<$0.01
246	Rally the Forces foil	C	$0.30	0.397%	<$0.01
247	Banishment Decree foil	C	$0.29	0.397%	<$0.01
248	Vedalken Infuser foil	U	$0.63	0.179%	<$0.01
249	Mirran Crusader foil	R	$1.83	0.0595%	<$0.01
250	Phyrexian Vatmother foil	R	$1.82	0.0595%	<$0.01
251	Serum Raker foil	C	$0.27	0.397%	<$0.01
252	Into the Core foil	U	$0.59	0.179%	<$0.01
253	Sphere of the Suns foil	U	$0.58	0.179%	<$0.01
254	Quilled Slagwurm foil	U	$0.57	0.179%	<$0.01
255	Koth's Courier foil	C	$0.25	0.397%	<$0.01
256	Kuldotha Ringleader foil	C	$0.25	0.397%	<$0.01
257	Dross Ripper foil	C	$0.24	0.397%	<$0.01
258	Mortarpod foil	U	$0.53	0.179%	<$0.01
259	Hexplate Golem foil	C	$0.23	0.397%	<$0.01
260	Vivisection foil	C	$0.23	0.397%	<$0.01
261	Neurok Commando foil	U	$0.50	0.179%	<$0.01
262	Plaguemaw Beast foil	U	$0.50	0.179%	<$0.01
263	Gruesome Encore foil	U	$0.49	0.179%	<$0.01
264	Glissa's Courier foil	C	$0.22	0.397%	<$0.01
265	Turn the Tide foil	C	$0.22	0.397%	<$0.01
266	Nested Ghoul foil	U	$0.47	0.179%	<$0.01
267	Horrifying Revelation foil	C	$0.21	0.397%	<$0.01
268	Oculus foil	C	$0.21	0.397%	<$0.01
269	Slagstorm foil	R	$1.36	0.0595%	<$0.01
270	Concussive Bolt foil	C	$0.20	0.397%	<$0.01
271	Pierce Strider foil	U	$0.42	0.179%	<$0.01
272	Skinwing foil	U	$0.42	0.179%	<$0.01
273	Lumengrid Gargoyle foil	U	$0.40	0.179%	<$0.01
274	Peace Strider foil	U	$0.40	0.179%	<$0.01
275	Caustic Hound foil	C	$0.18	0.397%	<$0.01
276	Quicksilver Geyser foil	C	$0.18	0.397%	<$0.01
277	Titan Forge foil	R	$1.17	0.0595%	<$0.01
278	Loxodon Partisan foil	C	$0.16	0.397%	<$0.01
279	Strandwalker foil	U	$0.35	0.179%	<$0.01
280	Spiraling Duelist foil	U	$0.34	0.179%	<$0.01
281	Contested War Zone foil	R	$0.88	0.0595%	<$0.01
282	Kemba's Legion foil	U	$0.29	0.179%	<$0.01
283	Vedalken Anatomist foil	U	$0.29	0.179%	<$0.01
284	Spin Engine foil	C	$0.13	0.397%	<$0.01
285	Gnathosaur foil	C	$0.11	0.397%	<$0.01
286	Choking Fumes foil	U	$0.23	0.179%	<$0.01
287	Victory's Herald foil	R	$0.64	0.0595%	<$0.01
288	Distant Memories foil	R	$0.63	0.0595%	<$0.01
289	Galvanoth foil	R	$0.62	0.0595%	<$0.01
290	Gore Vassal foil	U	$0.20	0.179%	<$0.01
291	Melira's Keepers foil	U	$0.15	0.179%	<$0.01
292	Metallic Mastery foil	U	$0.15	0.179%	<$0.01
293	Magnetic Mine foil	R	$0.40	0.0595%	<$0.01
294	Kuldotha Flamefiend foil	U	$0.07	0.179%	<$0.01
295	Training Drone foil	C	$0.03	0.397%	<$0.01