Booster value estimates
WTH · 1997
Weatherlight
15-card booster (11 commons · 3 uncommons · 1 rare) · 15 cards · estimated average value $16.10
| Pack | Pack price | Typical (median) | Average | Average − price | Average / price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Weatherlight · Booster | $38.23 ↗ | $9.00 | $16.10 | −$22.13 | 42% |
Typical value (median)$9.00
Average value$16.10
Middle 80% of simulated packs$3.99 – $39.17
Estimated chance of contents worth at least$2.00 100%$5.00 79%$10.00 47%$20.00 19%$50.00 7%
Half of simulated packs are worth less than the median. These are gross singles values, before fees and shipping. The model omits some bonus cards and uses approximate slot odds.
Pack contents, odds, and calculation details
Where the value sits
| Slot | Odds | × | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | common | 11 | $2.80 |
| Uncommon | uncommon | 3 | $3.07 |
| Rare | rare / mythic | 1 | $10.22 |
- Printed before foils existed; no foil slot.
- Pool: 167 booster printings; 167 priced on TCGplayer, 0 without a quote (counted as zero). common 62/62 · uncommon 55/55 · rare 50/50
- Estimated average value under this model: $16.10. The distribution comes from 20000 simulated packs. Their mean is $16.03 ± $0.14.
Cards in the Pack
Every card a pack can hold, with the share of the pack value it carries. Chance is the expected number of copies in one pack, added up over every slot that can hold the card. EV is price times chance; the column adds up to the pack value.
| # | Card | R | Price | Chance per pack | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Null Rod | R | $110.49 | 2.00% | $2.21 |
| 2 |  Scorched Ruins | R | $62.16 | 2.00% | $1.24 |
| 3 |  Firestorm | R | $46.71 | 2.00% | $0.93 |
| 4 |  Lotus Vale | R | $45.46 | 2.00% | $0.91 |
| 5 |  Winding Canyons | R | $36.37 | 2.00% | $0.73 |
| 6 |  Phyrexian Furnace | U | $10.29 | 5.45% | $0.56 |
| 7 |  Abeyance | R | $27.82 | 2.00% | $0.56 |
| 8 |  Gemstone Mine | U | $9.91 | 5.45% | $0.54 |
| 9 |  Aura of Silence | U | $7.91 | 5.45% | $0.43 |
| 10 |  Mana Web | R | $17.92 | 2.00% | $0.36 |
| 11 |  Goblin Bomb | R | $16.30 | 2.00% | $0.33 |
| 12 |  Vitalize | C | $1.74 | 17.7% | $0.31 |
| 13 |  Abjure | C | $1.68 | 17.7% | $0.30 |
| 14 |  Bösium Strip | R | $14.65 | 2.00% | $0.29 |
| 15 |  Pendrell Mists | R | $12.64 | 2.00% | $0.25 |
| 16 |  Mind Stone | C | $1.42 | 17.7% | $0.25 |
| 17 |  Gaea's Blessing | U | $4.58 | 5.45% | $0.25 |
| 18 |  Debt of Loyalty | R | $12.38 | 2.00% | $0.25 |
| 19 |  Bubble Matrix | R | $11.48 | 2.00% | $0.23 |
| 20 |  Peacekeeper | R | $10.93 | 2.00% | $0.22 |
| 21 |  Liege of the Hollows | R | $8.75 | 2.00% | $0.18 |
| 22 |  Buried Alive | U | $3.18 | 5.45% | $0.17 |
| 23 |  Doomsday | R | $8.61 | 2.00% | $0.17 |
| 24 |  Ancestral Knowledge | R | $7.52 | 2.00% | $0.15 |
| 25 |  Well of Knowledge | R | $6.34 | 2.00% | $0.13 |
| 26 |  Paradigm Shift | R | $6.01 | 2.00% | $0.12 |
| 27 |  Spinning Darkness | C | $0.67 | 17.7% | $0.12 |
| 28 |  Fervor | R | $4.80 | 2.00% | $0.10 |
| 29 |  Heat Stroke | R | $4.79 | 2.00% | $0.10 |
| 30 |  Steel Golem | U | $1.54 | 5.45% | $0.08 |
| 31 |  Dingus Staff | U | $1.42 | 5.45% | $0.08 |
| 32 |  Psychic Vortex | R | $3.75 | 2.00% | $0.08 |
| 33 |  Bone Dancer | R | $3.60 | 2.00% | $0.07 |
| 34 |  Argivian Find | U | $1.25 | 5.45% | $0.07 |
| 35 |  Flux | C | $0.36 | 17.7% | $0.06 |
| 36 |  Serra's Blessing | U | $1.15 | 5.45% | $0.06 |
| 37 |  Urborg Justice | R | $3.11 | 2.00% | $0.06 |
| 38 |  Infernal Tribute | R | $2.95 | 2.00% | $0.06 |
| 39 |  Teferi's Veil | U | $1.07 | 5.45% | $0.06 |
| 40 |  Serenity | R | $2.77 | 2.00% | $0.06 |
| 41 |  Angelic Renewal | C | $0.31 | 17.7% | $0.05 |
| 42 |  Empyrial Armor | C | $0.31 | 17.7% | $0.05 |
| 43 |  Abyssal Gatekeeper | C | $0.30 | 17.7% | $0.05 |
| 44 |  Disrupt | C | $0.30 | 17.7% | $0.05 |
| 45 |  Striped Bears | C | $0.28 | 17.7% | $0.05 |
| 46 |  Alms | C | $0.27 | 17.7% | $0.05 |
| 47 |  Mana Chains | C | $0.27 | 17.7% | $0.05 |
| 48 |  Boiling Blood | C | $0.25 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 49 |  Goblin Vandal | C | $0.25 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 50 |  Sage Owl | C | $0.25 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 51 |  Briar Shield | C | $0.24 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 52 |  Haunting Misery | C | $0.24 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 53 |  Fire Whip | C | $0.23 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 54 |  Aether Flash | U | $0.74 | 5.45% | $0.04 |
| 55 |  Apathy | C | $0.22 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 56 |  Barrow Ghoul | C | $0.22 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 57 |  Betrothed of Fire | C | $0.22 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 58 |  Dwarven Berserker | C | $0.22 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 59 |  Duskrider Falcon | C | $0.21 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 60 |  Llanowar Druid | C | $0.21 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 61 |  Tolarian Entrancer | R | $1.82 | 2.00% | $0.04 |
| 62 |  Benalish Infantry | C | $0.20 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 63 |  Harvest Wurm | C | $0.20 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 64 |  Razortooth Rats | C | $0.20 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 65 |  Zombie Scavengers | C | $0.20 | 17.7% | $0.04 |
| 66 |  Tranquil Grove | R | $1.71 | 2.00% | $0.03 |
| 67 |  Veteran Explorer | U | $0.62 | 5.45% | $0.03 |
| 68 |  Nature's Kiss | C | $0.19 | 17.7% | $0.03 |
| 69 |  Desperate Gambit | U | $0.61 | 5.45% | $0.03 |
| 70 |  Benalish Knight | C | $0.18 | 17.7% | $0.03 |
| 71 |  Llanowar Sentinel | C | $0.18 | 17.7% | $0.03 |
| 72 |  Redwood Treefolk | C | $0.18 | 17.7% | $0.03 |
| 73 |  Rogue Elephant | C | $0.18 | 17.7% | $0.03 |
| 74 |  Choking Vines | C | $0.17 | 17.7% | $0.03 |
| 75 |  Fog Elemental | C | $0.17 | 17.7% | $0.03 |
| 76 |  Orcish Settlers | U | $0.55 | 5.45% | $0.03 |
| 77 |  Maraxus of Keld | R | $1.48 | 2.00% | $0.03 |
| 78 |  Tendrils of Despair | C | $0.16 | 17.7% | $0.03 |
| 79 |  Thunderbolt | C | $0.16 | 17.7% | $0.03 |
| 80 |  Familiar Ground | U | $0.50 | 5.45% | $0.03 |
| 81 |  Fatal Blow | C | $0.15 | 17.7% | $0.03 |
| 82 |  Lava Storm | C | $0.15 | 17.7% | $0.03 |
| 83 |  Manta Ray | C | $0.15 | 17.7% | $0.03 |
| 84 |  Cinder Giant | U | $0.47 | 5.45% | $0.03 |
| 85 |  Bloodrock Cyclops | C | $0.14 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 86 |  Blossoming Wreath | C | $0.14 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 87 |  Jangling Automaton | C | $0.14 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 88 |  Tolarian Drake | C | $0.14 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 89 |  Tolarian Serpent | R | $1.20 | 2.00% | $0.02 |
| 90 |  Bogardan Firefiend | C | $0.13 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 91 |  Kithkin Armor | C | $0.13 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 92 |  Ophidian | C | $0.13 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 93 |  Strands of Night | U | $0.41 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 94 |  Noble Benefactor | U | $0.40 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 95 |  Aboroth | R | $1.09 | 2.00% | $0.02 |
| 96 |  Benalish Missionary | C | $0.12 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 97 |  Guided Strike | C | $0.12 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 98 |  Heavy Ballista | C | $0.12 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 99 |  Merfolk Traders | C | $0.12 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 100 |  Mischievous Poltergeist | U | $0.39 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 101 |  Gallowbraid | R | $1.06 | 2.00% | $0.02 |
| 102 |  Dense Foliage | R | $1.04 | 2.00% | $0.02 |
| 103 |  Inner Sanctum | R | $1.04 | 2.00% | $0.02 |
| 104 |  Vodalian Illusionist | U | $0.38 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 105 |  Ardent Militia | C | $0.11 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 106 |  Coils of the Medusa | C | $0.11 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 107 |  Fledgling Djinn | C | $0.11 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 108 |  Shadow Rider | C | $0.11 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 109 |  Dwarven Thaumaturgist | R | $0.97 | 2.00% | $0.02 |
| 110 |  Thundermare | R | $0.97 | 2.00% | $0.02 |
| 111 |  Serrated Biskelion | U | $0.34 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 112 |  Heart of Bogardan | R | $0.91 | 2.00% | $0.02 |
| 113 |  Thran Forge | U | $0.33 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 114 |  Urborg Stalker | R | $0.88 | 2.00% | $0.02 |
| 115 |  Wave of Terror | R | $0.88 | 2.00% | $0.02 |
| 116 |  Necratog | U | $0.32 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 117 |  Revered Unicorn | U | $0.32 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 118 |  Circling Vultures | U | $0.31 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 119 |  Hidden Horror | U | $0.31 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 120 |  Odylic Wraith | U | $0.31 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 121 |  Phantom Warrior | U | $0.31 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 122 |  Roc Hatchling | U | $0.31 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 123 |  Ertai's Familiar | R | $0.83 | 2.00% | $0.02 |
| 124 |  Mwonvuli Ooze | R | $0.82 | 2.00% | $0.02 |
| 125 |  Goblin Grenadiers | U | $0.30 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 126 |  Soul Shepherd | C | $0.09 | 17.7% | $0.02 |
| 127 |  Abduction | U | $0.29 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 128 |  Cloud Djinn | U | $0.29 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 129 |  Thran Tome | R | $0.78 | 2.00% | $0.02 |
| 130 |  Relearn | U | $0.28 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 131 |  Sylvan Hierophant | U | $0.28 | 5.45% | $0.02 |
| 132 |  Argivian Restoration | U | $0.27 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 133 |  Cone of Flame | U | $0.27 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 134 |  Alabaster Dragon | R | $0.72 | 2.00% | $0.01 |
| 135 |  Morinfen | R | $0.72 | 2.00% | $0.01 |
| 136 |  Cinder Wall | C | $0.08 | 17.7% | $0.01 |
| 137 |  Barishi | U | $0.26 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 138 |  Downdraft | U | $0.26 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 139 |  Festering Evil | U | $0.26 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 140 |  Lava Hounds | U | $0.26 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 141 |  Fallow Wurm | U | $0.25 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 142 |  Touchstone | U | $0.25 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 143 |  Fungus Elemental | R | $0.67 | 2.00% | $0.01 |
| 144 |  Southern Paladin | R | $0.66 | 2.00% | $0.01 |
| 145 |  Jabari's Banner | U | $0.24 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 146 |  Hurloon Shaman | U | $0.23 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 147 |  Mistmoon Griffin | U | $0.23 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 148 |  Volunteer Reserves | U | $0.23 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 149 |  Fit of Rage | C | $0.07 | 17.7% | $0.01 |
| 150 |  Xanthic Statue | R | $0.60 | 2.00% | $0.01 |
| 151 |  Arctic Wolves | U | $0.22 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 152 |  Gerrard's Wisdom | U | $0.20 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 153 |  Llanowar Behemoth | U | $0.20 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 154 |  Master of Arms | U | $0.20 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 155 |  Tariff | R | $0.54 | 2.00% | $0.01 |
| 156 |  Phantom Wings | C | $0.06 | 17.7% | $0.01 |
| 157 |  Sawtooth Ogre | C | $0.06 | 17.7% | $0.01 |
| 158 |  Shattered Crypt | C | $0.06 | 17.7% | $0.01 |
| 159 |  Agonizing Memories | U | $0.19 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 160 |  Avizoa | R | $0.49 | 2.00% | $0.01 |
| 161 |  Call of the Wild | R | $0.49 | 2.00% | $0.01 |
| 162 |  Chimeric Sphere | U | $0.17 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 163 |  Nature's Resurgence | R | $0.45 | 2.00% | $0.01 |
| 164 |  Foriysian Brigade | U | $0.16 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 165 |  Straw Golem | U | $0.15 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 166 |  Timid Drake | U | $0.13 | 5.45% | $0.01 |
| 167 |  Uktabi Efreet | C | $0.03 | 17.7% | $0.01 |